Week 5 Power Rankings

Here's a thing I've noticed about undefeated teams: the chat stops mentioning them around Week 4. It's like living next to a nice guy who mows his lawn every Saturday. You stop seeing him. Arfan beat Naafay 122.48 to 106.8 this week — Burrow 24.6, Henry 20.5, Smith-Njigba 20.3, Bowers 19.0, the Browns defense he picked up Saturday morning 11.0 — and the chat's entire reaction was Asim noticing the silence: "The fact no one mentioning you in these talks with being number one is crazy to me." (Nodding.) Arfan's reply, Tuesday morning, on learning his next opponent: "I'm cooked. Luck box." He has the most wins, the best all-play record, and the second-most points in the league. He is not cooked. He is the lawn guy.

Remember the Week 1 column, when I called this "The Stars Up Top" and gave it a tenth-ranked ceiling? I'd like that one back. The roster has Bowers now, and Zay Flowers, and Michael Wilson doing Michael Wilson things, and a bench that scored 52.6 this week without anyone noticing. The only roster move of the week was stashing Jonah Coleman on IR — the same Jonah Coleman Mustafa cut three weeks ago, which is a very Arfan way to acquire a running back: wait until someone else does the work, then show up at 11:56 PM.

Which brings us to the one actual problem. Burrow is on bye this week, and the backup quarterback on this roster is… nobody. The waiver wire's quarterback shelf currently reads "Jacoby Brissett," and Mustafa already took him. Picture Arfan opening the app Saturday night, seeing the empty QB slot, and texting the chat "I asked AI." Next is Asim, who scored 147.56 and says he needs Bucky "to turn into Josh Allen again." The lawn guy is about to find out if he can play without the mower.

We need a new entry in the Kingwood Levels of Losing, and it's named after this game. Call it the Dobbins Level: you lose by less than a guy on your bench scored, and you figure it out at three in the morning. Haroon scored 139.0 — Allen 30.5, Watson 29.3, Jones 17.2, Chase 16.7, Kyren 16.6 — and lost to Kashir's 148.36. J.K. Dobbins scored 14.4 on his bench. Jaylen Waddle scored 3.8 in his flex. The post arrived at 3:01 AM: "Dobbins would have secured it for me 😭😭." I ran the math so he wouldn't have to. Dobbins over Waddle wins it by 1.24. He also had Goff's 28.94 on the bench, which doesn't matter because Allen outscored him, but it's the kind of thing you notice at 3 AM and it does not help you sleep.

Here's the part that actually matters: Haroon now leads the entire league in points scored, 628.78, and is 2-3. He is 38-17 against the field. The Real Standings page has him as the unluckiest team in Kingwood by nearly a win and a half, which, for a guy who won the title last year because Zofrost's quarterback melted down on Christmas, is the universe collecting a balance. You don't get Christmas week AND a normal schedule. Nobody does.

The trade accounting, two weeks in, by Haroon himself: "you're winning the trade so far lol. Got 2 wins and I got 2 loses." The ledger agrees, by 23.36 lineup points. Goff went on the block at 5 PM Tuesday — "Get him while he's hot" — because when you're 2-3 with the best team in the league you start selling the guy who outscored your opponent's quarterback from your bench. (I had to read that sentence twice too.) Second on the board, No. 1 ceiling, and Chase and Jones on bye against Naafay. The Dobbins Level has a sequel potential I don't love.

Let's start with the logistics, because they're the best part. Yaseen is in Japan. So is Bilal. The waiver wire runs at 2 AM Houston time, which is 4 PM in Tokyo, which means two guys in this league have been doing their waiver claims after lunch while the other ten set alarms. Asim figured this out Wednesday ("when that waiver wire hit at 2am Houston time it's 4pm in japan 🤣") and I'd like to formally file it as a competitive-balance issue for the offseason meeting that will never happen. Kashir's only question for Yaseen all week was how many maid cafés he'd been to. The answer: "All of them." And then he went 4-1.

How? With Young, McMillan and Hubbard all on the Carolina bye, Yaseen started Trevor Lawrence — benched since the Young trade — and Lawrence scored 21.74. Garrett Wilson 19.9. The Jets defense 18.0. And MarShawn Lloyd, the running back Ivan cut in Week 4 and this desk apologized to in Week 1, scored 16.2 in the flex. Nabil conceded at 11:54 AM Sunday, before the early games kicked off. 104.24 to 80.16.

Now the uncomfortable math, because somebody has to say it to his face and he's thirteen time zones away. Gang Green is 4-1 and second in the standings. Gang Green is also 26-29 against the field, scoring below the league average, and the luckiest team in Kingwood at +1.64 wins — meaning a coin-flip schedule gives him 2-3. The formula alone puts him fifth. The record puts him second. I'm landing at third, because four wins is four wins and the Panthers are back this week, and because if I rank a 4-1 team fifth I will have to explain all-play records to the chat again and I'd rather go to a maid café. Next is Mustafa.

There's a thing that happens in every fantasy league where a guy makes the same decision every week, it goes wrong every week, and he posts about it every week like it's a surprise. In Kingwood we call this the Stafford Rule, and it has now held for five consecutive weeks. Stafford scored 27.32 on Bilal's bench. Dak scored 12.64 in his lineup. Thursday night, 9:42 PM, right on schedule: "I knew I should have put stafford." I want to be fair here — starting Stafford doesn't win this one; Asim scored 147.56 and the gap was 33.52 — but at some point the Rule stops being a bit and starts being a lifestyle.

And Bilal didn't lose because he played badly. Gibbs scored 35.2. LaPorta 17.3. London 15.3. He scored 114.04, which beats eight of the other eleven teams this week, and the one guy he played scored 147. His own review: "Of course Asim's team would go off against me! I wanna be a luckbox mannn." Bilal is now 2-3 at 36-19 against the field, the second-unluckiest team in the league behind only Haroon, which means the two guys who lost the Chief sheikh–Team Noor type games this week are both named in the Real Standings luck column. The curse-giver has become the cursed. There's a Greek word for that. I don't know it. Moving on.

The trade processed Thursday: Mike Evans and David Montgomery to Ivan for Quinshon Judkins. Kashir's review was "two bench players for a starter," and when Bilal objected, "Bilal trading retirement home for a rookie," which I'd rank as the best trade insult of the season, and this season has had a lot of trade insults. Judkins scored 6.5 in his MBK debut. Evans scored 22.8 for Ivan. The tracker is open and it's not flattering yet. Week 6 sends Gibbs, LaPorta AND Judkins to the Detroit/Cleveland bye together, which is the roster-construction equivalent of booking three flights through the same airport. Next is Bazaan.

Let's do the quarterback timeline, because I think it's a record. Week 1 through 2: Justin Herbert. Week 3: Jordan Love, with Sam Darnold picked up at 10:48 AM and benched. Week 4: Darnold, with Love benched. Week 5: Kyler Murray, picked up Thursday after Mustafa cut him, with Love scoring 25.28 on the bench. That's four different starting quarterbacks in five weeks, with the benched one outscoring the starter twice, which is the kind of thing that would get a real NFL coach fired and gets a fantasy manager a $100 check. Kyler scored 18.26. Kashir scored 148.36. He's 3-2.

The rest was a highlight reel. Jaylen Warren ran for 33.8. Parker Washington — the Week 1 flex emergence, still emerging — caught 27.4. Trey McBride 17.1, the Texans defense 15.0, and Justin Jefferson, activated from IR this week and dropped into the flex like nothing happened, 15.8. He beat Haroon by 9.36 in the game Haroon billed as the "real 2 juggernauts" bowl, which means Haroon was right about the matchup and wrong about which one of them he was.

The Sunday-night subplot deserves its own paragraph. Asim, trailing Kashir for the weekly high: "Hey bud can you relax I want the weekly too." Kashir: "Haroon gonna get it not me." Haroon didn't. Kashir did. Asim finished 0.80 short of both of them and I'm told he's fine. Kashir cashed his first hundo of the season, which puts him at $100 against a $367 buy-in, and spent the rest of the week offering Justin Jefferson to Bilal "for 20 one piece packs from Japan." (I've reread that offer four times. It might be the fairest trade proposed in this league all year.) Up two, to fifth. Week 6 sends St. Brown, Jefferson, Kyler AND Love to the bye in the same week, because this roster was built entirely out of Vikings and Lions. Next is Ivan.

Jayden Daniels came back from the elbow — the same elbow he dislocated last year, which I still can't believe is a sentence — and scored 32.26, the best quarterback game in the league this week. RamBam beat Ivan 123.66 to 75.3, went 8-3 against the field, and is 2-3 on a two-game winning streak. Spencer Shrader, the waiver-wire kicker, hit for 21.0. (A kicker scoring 21 is like a backup catcher hitting two homers: thrilling, suspicious, and you know it's never happening again.) Tyler Warren 17.9, Matthew Golden 17.3, Emanuel Wilson 12.2.

And now the one you've been waiting for. Roman Wilson, picked up on Wednesday's waiver run, started at receiver, left his game with a wrist injury, and scored 0.0. Emeka Egbuka scored 14.2 on the bench. C.J. Stroud scored 20.94 on the bench behind Daniels, which is the good kind of problem, and Jonathan Taylor scored 9.7, which is the other kind. The trade ledger now reads RamBam +24.30 over Bizzy — but only because CeeDee Lamb scored 1.9 on one leg. I've seen enough fantasy trades to know that "my guy is winning because your guy is hurt" has the shelf life of a banana. Nabil's "we need an apology after week 6" has one week left on the clock.

The formula puts the commissioner sixth, up three, and I want to be honest about how thin that is: sixth through eighth are separated by 1.5 points. One bad Sunday and this column is about IVaafay. The ceiling moves up to fourth now that there's a real quarterback under center, and next is Nabil, at Bizzy, in the trade-partner game the chat circled the second it was scheduled. Lamb is questionable. Deebo is out. Daniels is not. I'm not saying anything else about it. (I'm saying one thing: Egbuka starts this week.)

There's a category of loss in every league that nobody gets mad about: you played the 5-0 team, you scored a normal number, you lost. Naafay scored 106.8, HNFNR scored 122.48, and that's the whole story. George Pickens caught 23.5, Davante Adams 19.6, Bijan 13.8, Javonte 13.2, Kyle Pitts 12.7 (the Pitts resurrection continues, and I'll believe it when it survives November). The Bears defense scored −2.0 in Green Bay, which is less a fantasy result than a weather event.

The quarterback situation is resolving the way these things resolve in Kingwood, which is by elimination. Deshaun Watson scored 12.2 and is the starter until Caleb Williams, who the Bears keep describing as "close," is actually close. Michael Penix Jr., dropped last Monday, immediately got a rib injury, which is either Naafay reading the tea leaves or the Asim Juju being contagious. Joe Mixon was added Monday and dropped Wednesday. Brenton Strange arrived Thursday. Naafay has made 11 roster moves, which in this league is only sixth. (Bazaan has 26. We'll get to Bazaan.)

Seventh, down one, at 28-27 against the field — the exact middle of the league, dead on the scoring average, the most average team in Kingwood by every measure we have. Next is Haroon, who scored 139 and lost, with Chase and Jones on bye. If there's ever a week to catch the unluckiest team in the league, it's the one where he's missing two starters and looking for someone to sell Goff to.

Let's go back to Week 2, Sunday, 3:04 PM, Nabil to the group: "Anyone wants drake maye or loveland lmk..they 🗑️." Three weeks later Maye threw four touchdowns for 39.46 and Asim had the receipts ready: "Sir your words are dangerous. You were getting smacked now maye has 4 TDS." This is the single most reliable law in fantasy football — call your quarterback trash in public and he will throw four touchdowns within a month — and I don't know why anyone still tests it.

The problem is everything that wasn't Maye. CeeDee Lamb scored 1.9 on a quad. Deebo Samuel scored 1.5 and then pulled a hamstring that'll cost him weeks. Colston Loveland 2.9. Will Shipley 7.8 and then a torn plantar fascia, which I had to look up and now wish I hadn't. Kenneth Walker was on bye. The non-Maye starters scored 40.7 combined, Bizzy scored 80.16, and Nabil lost to Gang Green by 24.08 while going 1-10 against the field. Thursday night's diagnosis: "Someone definitely nazar the hell out of my squad." Sunday's concession came at 11:54 AM, before the early games kicked off, which may be a league record for earliest surrender, and I say that as someone who has watched Asim concede on Wednesdays.

Here's where I have to eat something. Last week this column gave Bizzy the third-best ceiling in the league and called Lamb-Collins-Walker a December lineup. One week later: Lamb hurt, Deebo out, Shipley out, and the trade ledger that showed Nabil ahead now shows RamBam +24.30. I'm moving the ceiling to sixth, not lower, because the December argument is still the December argument if the bodies come back — and because Maye is suddenly part of it, which nobody saw coming, least of all the guy who tried to give him away. Eighth, down four. Next is the commissioner, and the trade-partner game, and I'd pay money to see the two of them not talk about it.

I want to walk you through Asim's Monday night in real time, because it's the best running diary in the chat this season. 9:58 PM: "brooo I need 8 points. For weekly." 10:43: "Josh Allen bro damn." (The guy he traded away was on the other channel scoring 30.5 for Haroon and it did not help Asim's math.) 10:45: "Bro I need .9 points to win the weekly 😭🤮." 10:48: "Damn I didn't get it 😂." 10:52: "So close 😂. About these trades so far…" He finished at 147.56. Kashir finished at 148.36. The gap is 0.80, and Asim's bench scored 29.6, and I checked every combination, and there was exactly one lineup that found it: Terry McLaurin's 10.2 over Josh Downs' 6.2. I'm not going to be the one to tell him. You tell him.

About those trades so far. Bucky Irving ran for 30.5. Puka Nacua caught 29.2. Brock Purdy scored 16.16, Ollie Gordon 14.8, Fairbairn 17.0, the Broncos 14.0. The two players the entire league said Asim overpaid for combined for 59.7, and the first to say so was the guy who sold them. Haroon, Thursday night: "Damn @Asim. I told you Bucky was the guy." Naafay: "Bucky highkey played scary good, Asim on to something." Asim's response to being right: "Bro it's only one player rest of my team might be shotttt." He's the only guy in the league who doom-posts his way through a 33-point win.

The ledger reads DEDDYBABA +23.36 over Team Noor, and Haroon's own count is two wins to two losses. Now the part Asim won't like. He's 3-2 and fourth in the standings, and also 20-35 against the field — the second-luckiest team in the league — and the formula says ninth. I'm leaving him there, because three weeks ago this team scored 84 and I have a long memory. But the ceiling jumps three spots to eighth, because Bucky, Puka and Purdy are real, and because the next opponent is Arfan and the exact quote is "I need Bucky to turn into Josh Allen again." He traded Josh Allen for this. I love this league.

Some numbers from Bazaan's week, in the order they'd appear on a police report. Twenty-six roster moves on the season, seven more than anyone else. Four players dropped on Tuesday morning between 9:44 and 9:49 AM. Aaron Rodgers added Saturday for the Lamar absence (22.0 — worked). Isaac TeSlaa added Sunday at 4:13 AM and started (0.0 — did not work). The Commanders defense swapped for the Cowboys on Thursday afternoon, with the review filed live: "They gonna make me go negative. Made the last second change today too I had commanders d originally smh." Final: Cowboys −2.0. Bazan 91.4. Lost to Mustafa by 9.48.

I've started thinking of the Bazaan roster the way you think of a hotel lobby. The furniture's nice. Nobody's staying. Malik Nabers caught 23.6 and James Cook ran for 22.3, which is a core, and then the next-best starter was D'Andre Swift at 15.3 and after that it's a 4.6 and a 3.6 and a 2.0 kicker who was dropped Tuesday. Lamar sat with the ankle ("Lamar added to my injury list 🤦🏿"). Coker's out. Mitchell's out. A.J. Brown is still on IR. "Me n mustafa got the most injuries mann" was a true statement, right up until Mustafa beat him with those injuries.

Tenth, down two, and the ceiling slides to tenth to match. Lamar has a real chance to play this week, which is good, because the roster around him changes faster than I can write about it. Next is Bilal, who has three starters on bye and will still probably have a more stable lineup.

Monday morning, Asim looked at Mustafa's roster the way you'd look at a car that's been in a flood: "Can you even have a starting line up wtf lol. 7 injuries and 2 byes. How is that even possible." Mustafa's answer was a man closing the garage door: "I'm not trading man. I'll see yall next year." Then Wednesday at 5:06 AM he picked up Jacoby Brissett, and on Sunday Brissett scored 24.78. Isaiah Likely scored 26.9. Will Reichard kicked 16.0, the Vikings defense added 13.0, and RN beat Bazan with Barkley, DeVonta Smith, McConkey and DJ Moore all questionable on the bench and Mahomes and Kelce on bye. Picture the lineup card. Now picture it winning. That's the week.

The chat gave it the respect it deserved, which in this league means Asim did a whole bit. "Idc what anyone says the best win of the week goes to my boy @Mustafa. Against all odds. Back against the wall. Whole team hurt." Mustafa: "lol I got lucky but I appreciate it AD." He also stashed Marvin Harrison Jr. through an actual NFL trade to Houston, and Nabil was offering Deebo for him within the hour, which is Nabil's version of a sympathy card.

Now the cold part. RN is 2-3, but 15-40 against the field with the fewest points in the league, and the formula puts it dead last. I'm moving it to eleventh over Ivan on the strength of the week, because a team that won with that lineup card has earned one rung, and because Barkley is "hopeful" for Sunday and Mahomes and Kelce come back from bye. The real question is what this roster looks like in three weeks when everybody's healthy, and the answer might be "the team I ranked sixth in August." Next is Yaseen, and his four Panthers.

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Ivan to the group: "My whole team is up for grabs." Asim, who has never once let a trade mention go unanswered: "What you looking for my guyyyy." Ivan: "A bag of chips and a hug everyone's not producing lol." Then: "I'm just venting because I'm not doing to hot lol 😂." I've read a lot of fantasy chat this season and that's the first thing anyone's said that I'd put on a T-shirt. Ivan is 1-4. He scored 75.3 this week, the lowest number in the league, 0-11 against the field, and he has now allowed 643.96 points, the most in Kingwood by 36. The 2024 champion is in the Tyson Zone of bad luck, where nothing that happens to him would surprise you anymore.

The box score is a mystery novel where everyone did it. Mike Evans, acquired Thursday from Bilal, caught 22.8 in his debut — fine! Christian McCaffrey 15.8 — fine! Jalen Hurts 13.0, sure. Then Jeremiyah Love ran for 2.2, Carnell Tate caught 1.1, the Steelers defense scored 1.0, and Jameson Williams scored 17.7 on the bench while Tate started. The trade sent Quinshon Judkins to Bilal for Evans and David Montgomery, and Montgomery promptly hurt his groin Sunday and is week-to-week, because of course he did. Ivan also spent Tuesday and Wednesday negotiating a second deal with Kashir — Love and Judkins for Jefferson — right up until the Bilal offer arrived and he took that one instead. Kashir is still mad about it. Kashir is also his next opponent.

Last on the board, down two. The all-play record says 18-37. The scoring says nine percent under the league average. The record says 1-4. For the first time this season every number I have agrees with the group chat. The hug is still available. I don't know about the chips.